June 08, 2012

The 2Q economy and Obama re-election

As I've blogged before, per a NYT op-ed, the economy's performance in the second quarter of the fourth year of a first-term incumbent president's term, if the economy in general is a factor, is key to his re-election. It's simple and sensible, really.

People haven't yet really made up their minds, if they're still on the fence, during the first quarter. But, by the third quarter, at least by halfway through, most people have.

So, the second quarter is key.

And, the May slowdown is probably problematic for Dear Leader. But how problematic?

Ben Bernanke talks words of modest optimism, even in the face of Eurozone troubles. But Chinese central bankers are officially worried. (At the same time, Bernanke hedged on the idea of further economic stimulus; one continues to have the idea he wants the GOP House to get real, but that he's not sticking his neck out.)

But reality ain't in the GOP lexicon:
Representative Kevin Brady, a Texas Republican, asked Mr. Bernanke to “look the market in the eye” and “take a third round of quantitative easing off the table.” 
And, that's Obama's silver lining. (Not necessarily the country's, though.)

If the GOP had a better candidate than Mitt Romney, or simply a better party than it actually does, we'd instead be talking about whether Obama can keep the race close, or if he's going to lose as badly as Poppy Bush in 1992, or as bad as Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Instead, Obama could still win. And, possibly have another GOP House, judging by redistricting issues in California. Ugh. Four more years of Kumbaya and Catfood Commission in the name of bipartisanship. If Jill Stein can't deliver the Green Party upset, I'd almost rather have Mittens win. Seriously.

Update, June 8: Meanwhile, despite wingnut whining about Bernanke and wishing about stocks diving, the Dow had its best week this year.

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