Consumer confidence has hit an almost-five-year high. And, it's possible that hiring will continue on its slow uptick. The stock market reflects the sentiment, though it's interesting that health stocks soared on the presumption that SCOTUS will gut Obamacare.
I don't think the unemployment rate will fall below 8 percent before September. But, if it gets down to that level, an even 8.0, and oil prices stay below, say, $115/bbl, and people do a reasonable uptick in purchasing, I give Obama 3-2 odds against Romney. The SCOTUS ruling on Obamacare, whatever it is, will be spinnable his way more than Romney's. Romney will try to tack back left, but he's got too much on the record for that to work too well.