December 09, 2011

Obama: Jobless could hit 8%

That's the claim Dear Leader will make on "60 Minutes" Sunday, according to CBS transcript excerpts.

How realistic is this? With what caveats? And, what would that mean for his re-election?

The last first.

No-brainer against a wingnut. Solid winning odds against a Romney, unless the Mittster actually shows some creativity somewhere.

Now, the first and second.questions.

It's moderately realistic. If hopes get up, more people who have removed themselves from job hunting will get back in the game. My guess? September 2010 will be at 8.2 or 8.3 percent. Still improvement. Some increase in hope. Obama will take it and, of course, spin it.

Speaking of "spin," how much of this will be in the interview?
“For individual Americans, who are struggling right now, they have every reason to be impatient. Reversing structural problems in our economy that have been building up for two decades, that was going to take time. It was going to take more than a year. It was going to take more than two years. It was going to take more than one term. Probably takes more than one president.”
Reversing structural problems? This from the man who has given the back of his hand to Occupy Wall Street? From the president who rejected calls for direct jobs programs as part of his stimulus package? From the health care president who let insurers write much of Obamacare? Not to mention the man who's repeatedly caved to Republicans. AND, the president who thinks more people going to college is the answer when, in many cases, we have a glut of college grads right now.

Puhleeze.

The caveats? I mentioned one already, more people looking for work again. Others include the eurozone and oil prices. I think the economy can still limp on at up to $110/bbl, but not above that.

That, in turn gets back to what many Peak Oil watchers have been saying, that whenever the whole world seems to start to ramp up at once, it gets tripped up again by surging oil prices.

So, Obama's re-election prospects are in the hands of OPEC, followed by China and the EU, quite possibly. We know there will be no new U.S. structural reform to help.

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