December 07, 2011

Marlins overpay for Reyes; meaning for Pujols?

UPDATE, Dec. 8: It's the Angels! For details of what this means for the Angels, for the Cardinals and for Pujols, go here.

UPDATE, Dec. 7: With the Marlins reportedly signing Mark Buehrle for four years, $58 million, on top of the Reyes (and Bell) signings, it means that Miami "officially":
A. Is out of the Pujols chase and
B. Has a drunken sailor owner.

Actually, the price for Buehrle is probably more reasonable than for either Reyes or Bell. But, the total contracts, for a team that's never had huge fan/market support? They're paying just a shade over $40 million for their three new acquisitions. $20 mil for the rest of their roster puts them at $60 mil. That seems like a "healthy" payroll for this team. A trade or a B-list free agent puts them in good competitive territory with the second wild card for, say $65M.

And, is 10/$220 from Mozeliak enough to get Pujols to sign? Are the Cubs for real? The Angels are reportedly sniffing around. That said, the new deal isn't worth more on a per-year basis than the Cards' old one, but, because that deal would have included his 2011 option year, it IS two years longer.

And, there's still no word on sidebar issues, like a no-trade clause, joint marketing dollars for career milestone memorabilia, etc. That could possibly add another $10-$20 million to the Pujols contract, at least if it's with the Cardinals, where such things would mean more.

ORIGINAL POST: Sorry Miami/Florida Marlins. Sorry, Jeff Loria. Sorry, taxpayers to whom Loria is trying to justify stiffing you for that new stadium. (That would be the stadium whose stinky funding is now under SEC investigation. How bout THEM apples, Bud Selig?) BUT ... Jose Reyes is NOT worth six years and $106 million. This year was a career year for Reyes, I think, and if he bats over .300 again, or has an OPS over .850, and I'll eat my hat. At least, if he does that over 150 games or more, given nagging and non-nagging injuries of the past three years and that he's just replacement value, or below, defensively at shortstop.

Yahoo's blog tries to tout the deal, claiming Reyes could be a person to build around. Right.

This is after signing Heath Bell for three years and $27 million, a clear overpay for a reliever who won't be the same in Miami.

Jeff Brown speculates this means the Marlins are still in the running for Albert Pujols. Rather, I'd say it means Miami has about spent itself out. Prince Albert and Dan Lozano, seeing those two paydays, won't settle for anything close to the Marlins' original 9/$200 offer, and I don't think Loria is going to do, say, 9/$240. But, maybe he will. If the Marlins are spending like drunken sailors, there's always hope for another big payday. ESPN's Jayson Stark even claims the Marlins are prepared to up their offer. And, in terms of years, at least, the team now has, weighing in with a 10-year offer.

However, Jeff Passan agrees with me; the Reyes signing means it's time for Pujols to focus elsewhere. In fact, Passan calls the Pujols market "stagnant."

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